India election 2024 exit polls updates: Modi’s alliance projected to win

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We will be closing this live page soon. Here is a recap of today’s exit polls following the end of India’s mammoth seven-phase election earlier today.

• Modi’s BJP-led NDA alliance is projected to win a majority in the general election which, according to several exit polls.
• The country’s largest state Uttar Pradesh is slated to go to the NDA, with the alliance predicted to win more than 65 out of 80 seats, according to a News18 exit poll.
• The Congress-led INDIA alliance is set to make gains in major states, such as Maharashtra and Bihar.
• In the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the INDIA alliance is expected to dominate, as its parties did in 2014 and 2019 as well.
• The NDA is expected to win most seats in other southern states, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.
• Modi says he is confident of a third successive mandate after polls closed in the country’s marathon six-week general election.

In 2019, the BJP won 62 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state that sends more parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha than any other state.

This time, most exit polls predict, the BJP could win more than 68 seats. That would suggest a political defeat for the opposition alliance between the Congress and the regional Samajwadi Party.

The India Today-Axis poll has now released the exit polls from four union territories. Here is what they are predicting:

• Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu – The BJP-led NDA alliance will sweep the UT, likely winning both seats.
• Andaman and Nicobar Islands – The NDA is projected to win the sole seat.
• Chandigarh – The INDIA alliance is slated to secure the only seat in this western India UT.
• Lakshadweep – India Today-Axis has Congress winning the sole Lok Sabha seat in the state.

If the BJP-led NDA wins more than 350 seats, as most exit polls predict, Prime Minister Modi’s party could by itself win comfortably more than the 303 seats it won in 2019.

The BJP won 282 seats in 2014.

While these numbers would fall short of the 400 seat mark the BJP had set for the NDA, they would represent a historic mandate for Modi. Never before has a prime minister returned to power in India for a third term, with an increased mandate.

Exit polls for several northeast sates has now been released by the India Today-Axis exit poll. Here is what they are predicting:

• Sikkim – Either the Sikkim Democratic Front or the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha is slated to win the sole seat in the state.
• Mizoram – Congress is predicted to win the one Lok Sabha seat from this northeaster state.
• Nagaland – The news network is predicting INDIA alliance will win the sole seat here.
• Meghalaya – The two seats from the state are predicted to be split between the National People’s Party and Voice of People Party.
• Tripura – The NDA alliance, led by Modi’s BJP, is set to win both seats in the state.

A year after Manipur erupted in deadly ethnic crashes that critics blamed on the governing BJP, Modi’s party is predicted to lose in both of the northeast Indian state’s two seats, while the Congress, is expected to win one, according to the India Today-Axis poll.

In 2019, the Congress lost both the Manipur seats while the BJP won one. The other seat in the state was won by a regional party, which is expected to win a seat this time too.

The News18 exit poll is predicting a win for the BJP-led NDA in the eastern state, with the alliance likely to secure 21-24 seats, followed closely by regional party All India Trinamool Congress (TMC).

The poll says the TMC is slated to win 18-21 seats. Polls is the state have been marred by several episodes of clashes between supporters of the two parties in the past six weeks.

In Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populated state, the ruling BJP is set to win 68-71 of 80 seats, according to News18 exit poll

Congress is likely to only secure between 9-12 seats. UP has more seats than any other state in the country.

In area, it is nearly as big as the United Kingdom and its 241 million residents are more than the total population of neighbouring Pakistan or Brazil.

Winning UP is a key determinant of who rules nationally in New Delhi.

The central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, where the BJP is in power, could give the governing party all 11 of the state’s seats.

The BJP won 10 of the state’s seats in 2019, while the Congress won one.

The BJP-led alliance is set to completely sweep the Himalayan states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, winning all seats in the two states, according to India Today-Axis poll.

Uttarakhand has five Lok Sabha seats, while Himachal Pradesh has four.

The News18 exit poll is predicting a major win for the NDA, with alliance set to win 16-19 seats out of 25.

The INDIA coalition is slated to secure just 5-7 seats, the new network said.

The BJP won a majority of the seats in the last legislative assembly election in the northwestern state in November.

Two hours after Indian polling agencies and television channels began declaring results of exit polls from India’s mammoth seven-phase election, here are the key takeaways:

• Nationally: The BJP-led NDA alliance appears poised for a large sweep, with five polls projecting more than 350 seats for the coalition, out of a total of 543 seats. These polls give the opposition-led INDIA alliance between 118 and 161 seats.
• Southern India: In Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the INDIA alliance is expected to dominate, as its parties did in 2014 and 2019 too. But the BJP could make breakthroughs in both states, which would give it a foothold in a part of India where it has previously struggled. The NDA is expected to win most seats in other southern states, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.
• BJP sweeps: The BJP could sweep Gujarat, Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, and also Delhi.
• Opposition gains: The INDIA alliance is poised for gains in some major states — Maharashtra and Bihar among them.

The Congress party is likely to secure 8-10 seats out of 13 in the western state, with the BJP-led NDA likely to only secure 2-4, according to News18 exit poll.

Similar predictions have been made by India Today-Axis poll which says Congress may win 7-9 seats in the state.

The Congress-led INDIA alliance might be getting routed in many other states, according to exit polls, but it’s all even in Goa, the western Indian state best known for its beaches and seafood.

The two seats in the state could split 1-1 between the BJP and Congress, according to the India Today-AXIS poll. That wouldn’t be a surprise. In 2019 too, the two parties split the state’s seats.

The Modi-led NDA will likely win 6-8 of Haryana’s 10 seats, the India Today-Axis exit poll says. In the last election, the BJP won all seats in the state.

The INDIA alliance is slated to win 2-4 seats, the news network predicted. The state has been one of the hubs of farmer protests against the BJP’s policies at the centre.

The BJP is expected to win between 10 and 13 out of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha seats according to News18 exit polls, which give the Congress-led INDIA alliance 3-5 seats in the northeastern state.

For decades, Assam has been a Congress stronghold but has also been a cauldron of nationalist politics, in particular because it borders Bangladesh. Since the BJP came to power in the state in 2016, the state’s Muslims — many of whom the Hindu right accuses of being Bangladeshi immigrants — have often complained of discrimination.

In 2019, the BJP had won nine seats in Assam, with the Congress winning three, and the All India United Democratic Front winning two. But ahead of these elections, a redrawing of constituency boundaries has reduced the influence of Muslim votes in at least two seats.

According to the India Today-Axis exit poll, the BJP-led NDA is predicted to win somewhere between 8-10 seats out of a total 14 in Jharkhand state.

The news network says the opposition Congress party will win 4-6 seats, while other political parties are predicted to get win none.

Jharkhand is ruled by a Congress-led alliance, so this would mark a major loss for the opposition, and yet another instance of voters choosing differently while picking state governments, and when electing their national leadership.

Modi says he is confident of a third successive mandate after polls closed in the country’s marathon six-week general election.

“I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” Modi said in a post on X, referring to his ruling National Democratic Alliance coalition.

Several exit polls released shortly after voting predict the NDA winning more than 350 seats of the 543 required in parliament.

According to the India Today-Axis exit poll, the BJP-led NDA is predicted to win 6 or 7 seats in the Indian capital, which has a total of seven Lok Sabha seats.

The news network says the opposition Congress party is likely to win either one or no seats.