Russia-Ukraine talks updates: US-mediated negotiations kick off in Geneva

Thank you for joining our live coverage of the latest developments in Russia’s war on Ukraine, including the US-mediated talks held in Geneva.

We have a story for you about all the latest key developments as well as a report from Kyiv on Zelenskyy’s shifting fortunes during the war.

We’ll be closing this live page soon, so here are today’s main developments:

• Negotiators from Ukraine and Russia have begun two days of US-mediated peace talks in Geneva.
• Lead Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov says “security and humanitarian issues” are on the agenda.
• Before the talks, Russia carried out heavy air attacks overnight across Ukraine, causing heavy damage to the power network in Odesa, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says left tens of thousands without heat and water.
• The Kremlin says the talks will be held behind closed doors and without the presence of media.

More than a third of Ukrainian children, or 2,589,900, remain displaced as the war is about to enter its fifth year, the UN agency says.

That figure consists of more than 791,000 children inside Ukraine and nearly 1,798,900 child refugees living outside the country, UNICEF said.

“Millions of children and families have fled their homes in search of safety, with 1 in 3 children remaining displaced four years into this relentless war,” Regina De Dominicis, UNICEF’s regional director for Europe and Central Asia, said in a statement.

“For children in Ukraine, safety is increasingly hard to come by as attacks on civilian areas continue across the country. In many ways, the war is following these children,” De Dominicis added.

The agency said, of those displaced, one in three teenagers between the ages of 15 and 19 reported having to move at least twice, according to a recent survey.

Rustem Umerov has thanked the Trump administration “for its engagement and consistent work in the negotiating process”.

In a post on X, the lead Ukrainian negotiator in Geneva said his team had a “clear mandate” and frameworks approved by Zelenskyy.

“We are working constructively, focused and without excessive expectations. Our task is to maximally advance those solutions that can bring sustainable peace closer,” he said.

The Russian Ministry of Defence has just shared an update on Telegram, saying it has intercepted the drones between 9am and 3pm (06:00 and 12:00 GMT).

Of the 19 that were destroyed, the ministry said, 15 were over the Belgorod region, two were over Kursk and two were over Crimea.

At this point, we know that the Ukrainian and Russian delegations have been joined by the US delegation at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva, and we know that the talks have begun.

They’re happening behind closed doors and they will continue tomorrow, as well.

A larger number of questions will be addressed today compared to previous rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi.

Apart from political, military and humanitarian aspects, they’re going to be discussing an energy ceasefire because both countries continue to constantly attack each other’s power grids: Russia continues to attack Kyiv, and Ukraine continues its attacks on Russia’s border regions.

We have some comments from French President Emmanuel Macron, who has met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Mumbai.

Speaking alongside Modi, Macron called on India to back the suspension of military strikes targeting civilians and infrastructure in the war.

Macron urged Modi to “support the establishment of an immediate and lasting moratorium on attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure”, he told reporters.

India is the second largest buyer of Russian oil after China, and more than 30 percent of its fuel is sourced from Russia, providing revenue to the Kremlin despite Western sanctions. India imported just 1 percent of its oil from Russia before the Ukraine war started in 2022.

The aim is to move beyond the humanitarian exchanges that have been going on and to advance this to a broader ceasefire and peace framework.

What does that look like? It means there needs to be a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. There needs to be balanced concessions, particularly when it comes to territory and preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty – that is another thorny issue that needs to be worked out.

And then the framework for ending this needs to be acceptable to Ukraine. That has been a challenge for the United States in working with Kyiv – making sure Ukraine preserves its sovereignty and at the same time, giving it the long-term security guarantees that it’s looking for.

Nigeria has warned its nationals against scams aimed at duping them into fighting abroad after reports that dozens have ended up fighting in the Russian army.

The Nigerian Foreign Ministry, in a statement, expressed “grave concern over the rising and alarming cases of Nigerian citizens being illegally recruited to participate in foreign armed conflicts”.

“Several Nigerians who have fallen victim to such unfortunate situations were deployed to combat zones after being misled and coerced into signing military service contracts,” it said.

Nigeria did not name Russia, but a report published last week by the investigative collective All Eyes on Wagner said at least 36 Nigerians have so far been recruited by the Russian army to fight in Ukraine, five of whom have been killed.

Individuals from other countries, including Kenya, Uganda and South Africa, say they were promised well-paid jobs in Russia, but were later forced to sign contracts in Cyrillic and sent to the front.

Ukraine said in November it had identified at least 1,436 citizens from 36 African countries fighting for Russia.

French authorities have let the Russian tanker Grinch leave France’s territorial waters after paying a fine.

“Circumventing European sanctions comes at a price. Russia will no longer be able to finance its war with impunity through a ghost fleet off our coasts,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on X.

The ship’s owners were forced to pay a fine worth “several million euros”, Barrot said.

The French navy seized the Grinch in the Mediterranean and took it to the port city of Marseille last month on suspicion of being part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which Moscow uses to subvert international sanctions and sell its oil.

The company owning the ship was ordered to pay a penalty for not being able to justify flying the Comoros flag, French authorities said.

Kyiv’s residents have shared their thoughts on the possibility of their country making concessions.

Russia is demanding elections in Ukraine, but Victoria said now is not the right time for a change of leadership.

“I will say that the figure of our president is complicated, but I think it’s not the right time,” she said. “My opinion is that it’s not the right time to change the head of the command of our country. It’s not the right strategy.”

Another resident, Yaroslav, questioned how peace can be agreed upon while fighting rages on.

“How can you talk about peace when you keep on bombing and striking and ignoring all of the rules of warfare?” he said.

We now have confirmation from the Ukrainian military that it ⁠hit the Ilsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar ‌region.

In a statement, Ukraine’s general staff said the ⁠strike on the refinery, ⁠which it described as ⁠one of ⁠the largest ⁠oil facilities in southern Russia, had ‌sparked a fire.

Let’s bring you up to speed:

• Negotiators from Ukraine and Russia are to meet in Geneva for new US-mediated talks seeking to end the four-year war.
• Before the talks, Ukraine accused Russia of undermining peace efforts by launching 29 missiles and 396 drones overnight.
• Ukrainian authorities said at least four people were killed in the attacks that cut power to tens of thousands in southern Ukraine.
• For its part, Russia claimed to have repelled more than 150 Ukrainian drones, mostly over southern regions and the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula, while officials said an oil depot in southern Russia caught fire.
• The Kremlin has said the talks will be held behind closed doors and with no media present.

The 20 percent of Ukrainian territory lost is land that has been seized by Russia since 2014.

When we talk about real territory that has been taken over the past few years, since the full-scale invasion and in many cases since 2023, we are talking really only about a few percentage points.

And Ukraine’s stance will be that Russia has suffered huge losses in order to do that.

So Ukraine is certainly trying to paint a picture that this is not inevitable, that Russia would be able to seize the remainder of Donetsk, the region which is being discussed in these negotiations.

But also, many Ukrainians here feel that even to use the word negotiations, they don’t feel that these are very serious.

They feel that a lot of this is theatre for US President Donald Trump, as one Ukrainian told me, this is a show with one intended viewer, and it is not them.

So there is this sense that Russia is not negotiating in good faith.

We have some quotes from Ukrainians in Kyiv about the negotiations in Geneva.

“One shouldn’t trust the Russians, not even a little,” said Oksana Reviakina, 41. “I really want to believe that something will change after the meeting, but I really don’t bet on it.”

Alina Yemets, 27, also had low expectations from the talks.

“There have been so many of these meetings, so much talk about a ceasefire. Belief for good results is not very strong,” she said.

“People are already exhausted – they should at least be given a little rest. These constant air alerts, air attacks. The poor guys on the front line – I am very sorry for them.”

Russia and Ukraine remain far from striking a deal, despite Russia bringing a larger delegation to this week’s talks than on previous occasions.

The Russian delegation has expanded to up to 20 members, because more questions will be addressed today and tomorrow.

Russian and Ukrainian representatives will tackle political, military and humanitarian aspects of a deal, as well as a potential energy ceasefire.

But key sticking points remain: Russia wants Ukrainian troops to leave the parts of the Donbas that it still holds, presidential elections in the country and no Western troops on Ukrainian soil.

Despite four years of war, despite all the negotiations that all the parties have previously held, they remain light years apart from each other.

Prisoner exchanges are one of the few tangible things to come out of peace talks so far. And though they mean the world to soldiers and their families, on their own, they fail to bring Russia and Ukraine any nearer to an agreement to end the war.

The main issue is, and remains, territory.

Russia wants Ukraine to withdraw from Donetsk, and Ukraine refuses to allow Russia to annex more of its land.

While US President Donald Trump recently declared peace was very close, his Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested it remains elusive.

It’s in this climate that Russia and Ukraine meet in Geneva to discuss an end to the nearly four-year war.

A climate where Russia continues its strikes into Ukraine. In January alone, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims that Russia sent more than 6,000 drones and 150 missiles.

With this, Ukrainians wonder how they can make any concessions or feel confident in making any sort of compromise with an enemy that continues to attack.